Mapping the 65-Month Trend in T-Mobile’s 2.5GHz Holdings

Mapping the 65-Month Trend in T-Mobile’s 2.5GHz Holdings

A financial analyst recently asked for an update on our analysis of T-Mobile’s 2.5GHz ownership, specifically how their holdings have shifted since the FCC authorized commercial purchases of EBS spectrum.  Prior to the FCC's 2019 report, carriers could only lease EBS spectrum.  Our previous analysis looked at T-Mobile's conversion of the EBS spectrum from leased to owned over the 2019 to 2023 time period.

This request highlights three core strengths of our tools and data:

1) Custom Analysis > Our data is built on a flexible architecture designed for ad-hoc inquiries. We pride ourselves on being a technical partner, not just a software provider; we are always ready to develop custom extensions or perform specialized analysis to ensure you get the specific answers you need.

2) Historical Analysis > We leverage proprietary data to provide a month-by-month record of US spectrum ownership shifts from 2014 through the present. No other provider offers this level of granular, continuous historical detail, allowing us to accurately model trends from 2014 through 2026.

3) Data Transition Views > Each monthly update offers three distinct analytical perspectives:

• Licensed Data: Shows assets under direct legal ownership.

• Current Data: Reflects active operational control.

• Future Data: Accounts for the pro-forma impact of all pending transactions.

Analysis:

We will be looking at two trends, using historical data from Spektrum Metric's Mobile Carrier - Spectrum Ownership Analysis Tool.  

Looking at our Spectrum Ownership Grid in the Web Spectrum Viewer, T-Mobile's control of the EBS spectrum is clearly seen.  This is our Spectrum Grid displaying "Future" data which includes spectrum that T-Mobile leases or has a pending transaction filed.

Spectrum Grid - Future:

Shifting to the Spectrum Ownership Grid to display the spectrum licensee "Licensed" reveals the licenses that T-Mobile actually owns.  All of the white cells are educational licenses that likely lease their spectrum to T-Mobile.

Spectrum Grid - Licensed:

National Weighted Spectrum Depth Trend:

The spectrum available in the EBS and BRS (Broadband Radio Service) bands for each county totals 194 MHz.  If T-Mobile controlled every license in every county their National Population Weighted Average spectrum depth in the 2.5 GHz band would be 194 MHz, thus any amount of below 194 MHz represents another licensees ownership or lease of spectrum in these bands.

Since the FCC allowed commercial owners to purchase EBS spectrum T-Mobile's total 2.5 GHz spectrum (blue line) rose from roughly 164 MHz to 182 MHz, indicating that about 12 MHz of Nationally Weighted Spectrum is controlled by other carriers and licensees.  The spike in September 2022 coincides with the EBS whitespace auction results.

Over the same time period we quantified the spectrum that was directly owned by T-Mobile (gray line).  Note:  The EBS Auction results are not reflected in this trend line because T-Mobile has not received direct ownership of the licenses.  In the December 2019 to April 2026 timeframe, T-Mobile increased their ownership of the EBS/BRS spectrum by 41 MHz (National Weighted Population Spectrum Depth).  The spike between February and March 2024 relates to the granting of the Auction 108 licenses and the spike between October and November 2024 was the T-Mobile's acquisition of the HITN (Hispanic Instructional Television Network) licenses. 

 

MHz-POPs Trend:
MHz-POPs represent the value of the individual or cumulative licenses.  It is essentially found by multiplying the number of people (population) that can be served by a license times the bandwidth (MHz) of the license.  In the chart below, the orange link represents the cumulative MHz-POPs for all of the EBS licenses that T-Mobile owns and leases while the yellow line represents the EBS licenses that T-Mobile owns.  In December 2020, T-Mobile had 1 Billion MHz-POPs of leased EBS spectrum and over the last 65 months they have converted nearly 14 Billion MHz-POPs of those licenses into owned spectrum.    T-Mobile now has nearly 38 Billion MHz-POPs of EBS spectrum, up 8 Billion MHz-POPs from where they started in December 2020.

 

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